Журнал Forbes опубликовал статью с результатами опросов аналитиков, в которых утверждается, что большинство россиян уже в 2024 году не смогут купить квартиру в ипотеку. Недавнее повышение ключевой ставки ЦБ РФ до 15% негативно скажется на оценке рыночных проектов для покупки жилья. А планы льготного кредитования будут существовать в сокращенном виде.
Итоги года
В середине лета ключевая ставка поднялась вдвое, что повлекло значительное подорожание ипотеки и заемщики стали отказываться от идеи взять жилье в ипотеку. Если в начале года средняя ипотечная ставка была на уровне 15,2–15,3%, то во второй половине года банки стали предлагать ипотечные кредиты по ставке 17,2–17,5%. А средняя ставка по льготной ипотеке составила 8% годовых, которые ниже рынка более, чем в 2 раза.
По анализу департамента розничных продуктов доступным уровнем для заемщиков, который оказывает психологическое влияние, является ставка около 10-12%.
Эксперты считают, что повышенные ставки повлияют на дебиторов и спрос сместится на первичный рынок и госпрограммы. Корреляция ипотечных кредитов, выдаваемых на новостройки и построенное жилье составляет 30% и 70% соответственно. Введение повышенной ключевой ставки может поменять показатели местами, при этом не менее 90% ипотек будет субсидироваться на государственном уровне.
Ведущий эксперт «Русипотеки» Сергей Гордейко полагает, что ипотека станет недостижимой мечтой для большинства дебиторов. Большая масса ипотечных кредитов будет выдаваться при поддержке государства некоторым категориям людей, или жителям определенных районов, в которых необходимо поддержать рынок недвижимости.
Что ожидать в 2024 году?
Неизвестно будет ли продлена или остановлена выдача ипотечных кредитов на новостройки под 8%, действие которой продлится до 1 июля. Банковские эксперты считают, что выдача льготных ипотечных программ сохранится, но в сокращенном виде.
Директор центра развития ипотечного бизнеса Буслова Алина утверждает, что такие программы сохранятся для определенных категорий заемщиков. Сергей Гордейко считает, что льготное кредитование на новостройки будет прекращено. Более вероятно, что правительство расширит поддержку многодетных семей.
Аналитик банка ДОМ.РФ Григорий Жирнов считает, что в 2024 году количество кредитов может упасть на 1,45 млн штук. В рублевом эквиваленте уменьшение займов составит 6 трлн рублей из-за того, что просядет вторичный рынок. В первом полугодии первичный рынок продержится благодаря влиянию льготных программ, дальнейшая судьба новостроек неизвестна. Она будет обусловлена действиями правительства.
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